北京时候23日晚10点巨乳 乳首，好意思联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔民众央行年会上重磅发声。

会议上，鲍威尔开释了迄今为止最为明确的降息信号，他暗示： 政策退换的时机也曾到来。降息时机和节律将取决于后续数据、前程变化和风险均衡。

他觉得，咫尺的政策利率水平为好意思联储提供了鼓胀的空间来嘱托可能濒临的任何风险，包括劳能源阛阓景色进一步恶化的风险。“通胀的上行风险也曾减轻，服务的下行风险则有所加多。好意思联储关注双重责任各自所濒临的风险。”

以下为语言全文（中英对照）：

Four and a half years after COVID-19's arrival， the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading. Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated， and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed. Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market， avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored. While the task is not complete， we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.

在新冠病毒到来四年半后，与疫情关联的最严重的经济污蔑正在消退。通货推广已光显下落。劳能源阛阓不再过热，现在的景色也不如疫情前那么紧俏。供给松手也曾正常化。咱们两项任务的风险均衡也曾发生了变化。咱们的筹办是复原价钱踏实的同期保捏强盛的劳能源阛阓，幸免失业率急剧上升，这是通胀预期莫得充分锚定时闲居会出现的早期去通胀特征。咱们也曾朝着这个筹办获取了很猛进展。天然任务尚未完成，但咱们也曾朝着这一成果获取了很猛进展。

Today， I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy. I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived， exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation， and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low.

今天，我将源头规划刻下的经济所在和货币政策的将来旅途。然后，我将转向对疫情以来经济事件的规划，探讨为什么通货推广上升到一代东说念主以来的最高水平，以及为什么通胀率下落如斯之多，而失业率却保捏在低位。

Near-Term Outlook for Policy 近期政策预测

Let's begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy.

让咱们从刻下的所在和近期政策前程驱动。

For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) primary focus has been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so. Prior to this episode， most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period. Inflation brought substantial hardship， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing， and transportation. High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today.

在畴前三年的大部分时候里，通胀率远高于咱们 2% 的筹办，劳能源阛阓景色极其病笃。联邦公开阛阓委员会 (FOMC) 的主要重心是裁汰通胀率，这是理所天然的。在此之前，现在大多数好意思国东说念主还莫得经历过始终高通胀的可怜。通胀带来了强大的贫乏，尤其是对于那些最无力承担食物、住房和交通等基本生计必需品腾贵资本的东说念主来说。高通胀激发的压力和不公正感于今仍然存在。

Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored. Inflation is now much closer to our objective， with prices having risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months (figure 1) . After a pause earlier this year， progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed. My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent.

咱们的松手性货币政策有助于复原总供需均衡，缓解通胀压力，并确保通胀预期保捏精熟锚定。通货推广现在更接近咱们的筹办，物价在畴前12个月中高涨了2.5%（图1）。继岁首有所凝滞之后，咱们朝着2%的筹办又获取了进展。我越来越有信心，通胀率正沿着可捏续的说念路回到2%。

Turning to employment， in the years just prior to the pandemic， we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions: low unemployment， high participation， historically low racial employment gaps， and， with inflation low and stable， healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes.

谈到服务，在疫情爆发前的几年里，咱们看到了始终强盛的劳能源阛阓景色给社会带来的紧要利益：低失业率、高参与率、历史性的低种族服务差距，以及通货推广率低而踏实、履行工资增长健康且越来越勾搭在低收入东说念主群中。

Today， the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent—still low by historical standards， but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023 (figure 2). Most of that increase has come over the past six months. So far， rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs， as is typically the case in an economic downturn. Rather， the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring. Even so， the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable. Job gains remain solid but have slowed this year. Job vacancies have fallen， and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range. The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 2019. Nominal wage gains have moderated. All told， labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent. It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.

如今，劳能源阛阓已从之前的过热状态大幅降温。失业率在一年多前驱动上升，咫尺为4.3%，以历史圭臬计算仍然较低，但比2023岁首的水平逾越快要整整一个百分点（图2）。其中大部分上升是在畴前六个月中齐全的。到咫尺为止，失业率上升并不是裁人加多的成果，而裁人是经济衰败期间的典型情况。相背，这一增长主要反应了工东说念主供给的大幅加多以及之前豪恣的招聘速率有所放缓。即便如斯，劳能源阛阓景色的降温是无谓置疑的。服务增长保捏郑重，但本年有所放缓。职位空白下落，职位空白与失业的比率已回到疫情前的水平。招聘率和去职率现在低于 2018年和2019年的水平。口头工资增长有所放缓。一言以蔽之，现在的劳能源阛阓景色不如2019年疫情之前那么病笃，那一年的通胀率低于2%。劳能源阛阓似乎不太可能在短期内成为通胀压力上升的根源。咱们不寻求或迎接劳能源阛阓景色进一步降温。

Overall， the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement， we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

总体而言，经济不竭以郑重的速率增长。但通货推广和劳能源阛阓数据自大，情况正在束缚变化。通胀的上行风险也曾减轻。服务的下行风险也有所加多。正如咱们在上一次FOMC中强调的那样，咱们关注双重担务中的两方面风险。

The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear， and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks.

现在是政策退换的时候了。前进的标的是明确的，降息的时机和依次将取决于行将到来的数据、束缚变化的前程以及风险的均衡。

We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint， there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face， including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.

咱们将尽一切努力撑捏强盛的劳能源阛阓，同期在价钱踏实方面死力进一步进展。跟着政策管制的适合管制，咱们有充分的原理觉得，经济将回到2%的通胀率，同期保捏强盛的劳能源阛阓。咱们咫尺的政策利率水平为咱们提供了鼓胀的空间来嘱托可能濒临的任何风险，包括劳能源阛阓景色不受迎接的进一步疲软的风险。

The Rise and Fall of Inflation 通胀的起落

Let's now turn to the questions of why inflation rose，欧美童模写真 and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low. There is a growing body of research on these questions， and this is a good time for this discussion. It is， of course， too soon to make definitive assessments. This period will be analyzed and debated long after we are gone.

现在让咱们来谈谈为什么通货推广会上升，为什么在失业率保捏低位的情况下通货推广却大幅下落。对于这些问题的推敲越来越多，现在是规划的好时机。天然，现在作念出明确的评估还为时过早。在咱们离开后很长一段时候，东说念主们仍将对这段期间进行分析和辩白。

The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world. It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks. As so often happens in times of crisis， Americans adapted and innovated. Governments responded with extraordinary force， especially in the U.S. Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act. At the Fed， we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help stave off an economic depression.

新冠疫情的爆发连忙导致民众经济停摆。这是一个充满不深信性和严重下行风险的期间。正如危急期间通常发生的那样，好意思国东说念主适团结革命。列国政府作念出了超卓的回话，尤其是好意思国国会一致通过了《情切法案》。在好意思联储，咱们以前所未有的程度哄骗咱们的职权来踏实金融体系并匡助幸免经济心事。

After a historically deep but brief recession， in mid-2020 the economy began to grow again. As the risks of a severe， extended downturn receded， and as the economy reopened， we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the Global Financial Crisis.

在经历了历史上令东说念主深远但片晌的衰败之后，2020年年中，经济再次驱动增长。跟着严重偏向下行的风险消退，以及经济再行通达，咱们依然濒临着风险，可能会再次经历像民众金融危急之后那样自如复苏的可怜。

Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021. Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021. The ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery. Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services. But pent-up demand， stimulative policies， pandemic changes in work and leisure practices， and the additional savings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods.

国会在 2020 年底和 2021 岁首提供了大齐特等的财政撑捏。2021 年上半年，支拨强盛复苏。捏续的疫情影响了复苏的模式。对新冠疫情的捏续担忧牵扯了面对面服务的支拨。但被压抑的需求、刺激政策、疫情导致的作事和恬逸习气的变化，以及与服务支拨受限关联的特等储蓄，齐促使消费者在商品上的支拨出现历史性激增。

The pandemic also wreaked havoc on supply conditions. Eight million people left the workforce at its onset， and the size of the labor force was still 4 million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021. The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023 (figure 3). Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers， disrupted international trade linkages， and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand (figure 4). Clearly， this was nothing like the slow recovery after the Global Financial Crisis.

疫情还对供给端变成了严重破损。疫情驱动时有 800 万东说念主离开了劳能源阛阓，劳能源数目仍比 2021 岁首疫情前的水平低 400 万东说念主。劳能源直到2023年年中才复原到疫情前的趋势（图3）。 工东说念主流失、国外营业相关中断以及需求水平以及组成的结构性变化等身分使供应链堕入窘境（图4）。光显，这与民众金融危急后的自如复苏透顶不同。

Enter inflation. After running below target through 2020， inflation spiked in March and April 2021. The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad based， with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply， such as motor vehicles. My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and， thus， that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response—in short， that the inflation would be transitory. Standard thinking has long been that， as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored， it can be appropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation.

通货推广驱动解析。在 2020 年全年低于筹办水平后，通货推广在 2021 年 3 月和 4 月飙升。源头的通货推广爆发是勾搭的，而不是粗野的，汽车等穷乏商品的价钱大幅高涨。我和我的共事一驱动就判断，这些与疫情关联的身分不会捏续，因此，通货推广的顷刻间上升很可能很快就会畴前，而不需要货币政策嘱托——简而言之，通货推广将是暂时的。始终以来的圭臬想维是，只消通胀预期保捏精熟踏实，央行就不错忽略通胀的暂时上升。

The good ship Transitory was a crowded one， with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly， that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course， and that demand would rotate back from goods to services， bringing inflation down.

“暂时性”这艘好船挤满了东说念主，大多数主流分析师和证明经济体央行行长齐撑捏这一不雅点。他们广泛预期供应景色将连忙改善，需求的快速复苏将顺从其好意思，需求将从商品转向服务，从而裁汰通胀率。

For a time， the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis. Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April to September 2021， although progress came slower than expected (figure 5). The case began to weaken around midyear， as was reflected in our communications. Beginning in October， the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.9 Inflation rose and broadened out from goods into services. It became clear that the high inflation was not transitory， and that it would require a strong policy response if inflation expectations were to remain well anchored. We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November. Financial conditions began to tighten. After phasing out our asset purchases， we lifted off in March 2022.

一段时候内，数据与暂时性假定相一致。2021 年 4 月至 9 月，中枢通胀的月度读数每月齐鄙人降，尽管进展慢于预期（图 5）。正如咱们的一样所反应的那样，这种情况在年中掌握驱动减轻。从 10 月驱动，数据变得与暂时性假定以火去蛾中。9 通胀上升，并从商品扩展到服务。很光显，高通胀不是暂时的，如果要保捏通胀预期的精熟踏实，就需要强有劲的政策嘱托。咱们签订到了这少许，并从 11 月驱动泛动。金融景色驱动收紧。在徐徐取消钞票购买后，咱们于 2022 年 3 月驱动加息。

By early 2022， headline inflation exceeded 6 percent， with core inflation above 5 percent. New supply shocks appeared. Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices. The improvements in supply conditions and rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected， in part due to further COVID waves in the U.S. 

到2022岁首，总体通胀高出6%，中枢通胀高出5%。新的供给冲击出现。俄乌碎裂导致能源和巨额商品价钱大幅高涨。供给景色的改善和需求从商品转向服务的时候比预期的要长得多，部分原因是好意思国新一轮的新冠波浪。

High rates of inflation were a global phenomenon， reflecting common experiences: rapid increases in the demand for goods， strained supply chains， tight labor markets， and sharp hikes in commodity prices.12 The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1970s. Back then， high inflation became entrenched—an outcome we were utterly committed to avoiding.

高通胀率是一种民众气候，反应了共同的经历：商品需求连忙加多、供应链病笃、劳能源阛阓病笃以及巨额商品价钱大幅高涨。民众通胀的履行不同于上世纪70年代以来的任何期间。其时，高通胀也曾树大根深——这是咱们尽全力幸免的成果。

By mid-2022， the labor market was extremely tight， with employment increasing by over 6-1/2 million from the middle of 2021. This increase in labor demand was met， in part， by workers rejoining the labor force as health concerns began to fade. But labor supply remained constrained， and， in the summer of 2022， labor force participation remained well below pre-pandemic levels. There were nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed persons from March 2022 through the end of the year， signaling a severe labor shortage (figure 6).Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022.

2022年年中，劳能源阛阓十分病笃，服务东说念主数比2021年年中加多了650万以上。劳能源需求的加多在一定程度上是通过工东说念主再行加入劳能源阛阓来齐全的，因为东说念主们对健康的担忧驱动消退。但劳能源供给仍然受到松手，2022年夏天的劳能源参与率仍远低于疫情前的水平。从2022年3月到年底，职位空白数险些是失业东说念主数的两倍，标明劳能源严重穷乏（图6）。通胀在2022年6月达到7.1%的峰值。

At this podium two years ago， I discussed the possibility that addressing inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth. Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession and a lengthy period of high unemployment. I expressed our unconditional commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the job is done.

两年前，我曾在这个讲台上规划过，惩办通货推广问题可能会带来失业率上升和经济增长放缓等一些可怜。有东说念主觉得，规定通货推广需要经济衰败和始终的高失业率。我抒发了咱们无条件的答应，即全面复原价钱踏实，并坚捏下去，直到任务完成。

The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities， and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability. We raised our policy rate by 425 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023. We have held our policy rate at its current restrictive level since July 2023 (figure 7).

FOMC在推行包袱方面莫得古老，咱们的行为有劲地标明了咱们对复原价钱踏实的决心。咱们在2022年将政策利率上调了425bp，并在2023年再次上调 100bp。自2023年7月以来，咱们一直将政策利率看护在咫尺的松手性水平（图7）。

The summer of 2022 proved to be the peak of inflation. The 4-1/2 percentage point decline in inflation from its peak two years ago has occurred in a context of low unemployment—a welcome and historically unusual result.

通胀在2022 年夏令达到峰值。在低失业率的配景下，通胀从两年前的峰值下落了4.5%，这是一个可喜且历史萧瑟的成果。

How did inflation fall without a sharp rise in unemployment above its estimated natural rate?

如何达到通胀下落而失业率莫得急剧上升到高出揣测的天然失业率的？

Pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand， as well as severe shocks to energy and commodity markets， were important drivers of high inflation， and their reversal has been a key part of the story of its decline. The unwinding of these factors took much longer than expected but ultimately played a large role in the subsequent disinflation. Our restrictive monetary policy contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand， which combined with improvements in aggregate supply to reduce inflationary pressures while allowing growth to continue at a healthy pace. As labor demand also moderated， the historically high level of vacancies relative to unemployment has normalized primarily through a decline in vacancies， without sizable and disruptive layoffs， bringing the labor market to a state where it is no longer a source of inflationary pressures.

疫情关联的供需污蔑以及对能源和巨额商品阛阓的严重冲击，是高通胀的紧迫驱上路分，而它们的逆转是通胀下落的关节部分。这些身分的排斥消耗的时候比预期要长得多，但最终在随后的去通胀中阐扬了紧迫作用。松手性货币政策导致总需求放缓，这与总供给的改善相结合，减轻了通胀压力，同期不竭保捏良性增长。跟着劳能源需求也有所放缓，职位空白率/失业率也曾从历史高位复原正常，主如若通过职位空白的下落，而非大限制和破损性的裁人，使得劳能源阛阓不再是通胀压力的来源。

A word on the critical importance of inflation expectations. Standard economic models have long reflected the view that inflation will return to its objective when product and labor markets are balanced—without the need for economic slack—so long as inflation expectations are anchored at our objective. That's what the models said， but the stability of longer-run inflation expectations since the 2000s had not been tested by a persistent burst of high inflation. It was far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold. Concerns over de-anchoring contributed to the view that disinflation would require slack in the economy and specifically in the labor market. An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations， reinforced by vigorous central bank actions， can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack.

对于通胀预期的紧迫性。始终以来，圭臬经济模子一直反应出这样一种不雅点，即只消通胀预期锚定在咱们的筹办上，当居品和劳能源阛阓达到均衡时，通胀就会回到其筹办，而不会带来经济粗放。模子是这样说的，但自2000年代以来始终通胀预期的踏实性并莫得采选过捏续高通胀的老师。通胀能否捏续锚定还远不可得以保险。对脱锚的担忧促成了一种不雅点，即去通胀将需要经济（尤其是劳能源阛阓）的粗放。从最近的经历中得出的一个紧迫论断是，锚定的通胀预期，加上央行的有劲行为，不错促进去通胀，经济粗放并不是必须的。

This narrative attributes much of the increase in inflation to an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply. While researchers differ in their approaches and， to some extent， in their conclusions， a consensus seems to be emerging， which I see as attributing most of the rise in inflation to this collision.All told， the healing from pandemic distortions， our efforts to moderate aggregate demand， and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2 percent objective.

这种说法将通胀上升主要归罪于（经济）过热以及暂时污蔑的需求与受限的供给之间的超卓碰撞。尽管推敲东说念主员在方式上各不一样，在某种程度上他们的论断上也各不一样，但似乎正在形成一种共鸣，在我看来即是通胀上升的大部分原因应归罪于这场碰撞。一言以蔽之，咱们从疫情的污蔑中复原了过来，咱们为爽快总需求所作念的努力结合对预期的锚定，共同使通胀走上了一条日益齐全2%筹办的可捏续说念路。

Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations， which reflect the public's confidence that the central bank will bring about 2 percent inflation over time. That confidence has been built over decades and reinforced by our actions.

唯一在锚定通胀预期的情况下才有可能在保捏劳能源阛阓强盛的同期齐全去通胀，这反应了公众有信心央行将缓缓达到2%掌握的通胀筹办。这种信心是畴前几十年来开辟起来的，况且通过咱们的行为得以加强。

That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may vary.

这是我对事件的评估。可能因东说念主而异。

Conclusion 论断

Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other， and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period. Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making appropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years. As we begin this process later this year， we will be open to criticism and new ideas， while preserving the strengths of our framework. The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humility and a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and applying them flexibly to our current challenges.

终末，我想强调的是，事实讲解，疫情经济与其他任何经济齐不同，从这一特地期间中咱们仍有很多东西需要学习。咱们的《始终筹办和货币政策政策声明》强调，咱们致力于每五年通过一次全面的公开审查来审查咱们的原则并作念出适合退换。当咱们在本年晚些时候驱动这一程度时，咱们将对月旦和新目的捏通达气魄，同期保捏咱们框架的上风。咱们常识的局限性——在疫情技术不问可知——要求咱们保捏和爽快质疑精神，专注于从畴前吸取教导并机动地将其应用于咱们刻下的挑战。

小骚货

注：鲍威尔语言稿原文详见好意思联储官网巨乳 乳首，华尔街见闻略有删省。

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